Casino games may seem based purely on luck, but SlotLords savvy players know there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to odds and probability. Understanding expected value – the average net amount you can expect to win or lose per bet – is key to gaining an edge and boosting your chances of walking away a winner.
How Expected Value Works
Expected value tells you your average per-bet profit or loss based on the odds and payouts of a game. Here’s the formula:
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning x Prize Won) – (Probability of Losing x Bet Amount)
For example, when playing roulette:
- Probability of winning is 1/38 (on a 38-number wheel)
- The prize won is 35x your bet (35:1 payout on a single number)
- The probability of losing is 37/38
- The bet amount is what you wagered
Plug those numbers into the formula:
(1/38 x 35xBet) – (37/38 x Bet) = -0.0526xBet
So the expected value is -$0.0526 per $1 bet. Over time, you’ll lose 5.26% of every dollar wagered. Understanding this expected loss per bet allows you to set realistic goals and avoid chasing losses when luck is not on your side.
Using Expected Value to Compare Casino Games
Expected value is negative in most The Reviews Casino games – the house maintains an edge over players. But comparing the expected value across games can lead you toward or away from certain bets.
For example, blackjack typically has an expected loss around 0.5% per hand when using perfect basic strategy. Compare that to roulette’s 5.26% per spin mentioned earlier. Blackjack has the lower expected loss, making it the statistically smarter play.
Certain blackjack side bets even have positive expected value under rare circumstances, leading to an expected win over time. But these situations are few and far between.
Understanding if a game has positive, negative, or neutral expected value – and just how far positive or negative it is – lets you focus your play where you have the best odds.
Tweaking Bets Based on Expected Value
Expected value also guides adjustments to your betting strategy. Say you’re playing a simple coin-flip game with a $1 stake and a 1:1 payout. The expected value is:
(1/2 x $1) – (1/2 x $1) = $0
Since the expected value is $0, this is a fair game – neither side has an advantage. To introduce an edge, you adjust your bet sizing.
If you bet $2 instead of $1 on the coin flip above, the expected value becomes:
(1/2 x $2) – (1/2 x $2) = $0
Still a neutral game. But now if you bet $3, the math changes:
(1/2 x $3) – (1/2 x $3) = +$0.50
Now every coin flip yields an expected profit of $0.50. You created +EV with asymmetric betting!
This example simplifies real-world casino games, but the concept still applies. Betting more on wagers with sound math and less on sucker bets introduces an expected value advantage.
Using Expected Value to See Behind the Casino Curtain
The next time you sit down with a stack of chips, think before you bet. Understanding expected value reveals the real odds behind the casino glitz and glamor. Learn to calculate EV for the games you play often to determine if certain bets deserve more or less of your bankroll.
Just a few minutes of math can provide an instant edge over less disciplined players. In a game where the house always wins in the long run, smart bet sizing based on expected value is one of the only reliable paths to consistent profits.
Table 1: Expected Loss Per $100 Bet in Popular Casino Games
| Game | Expected Loss |
| Blackjack | -$0.50 |
| Baccarat | -$1.24 |
| Roulette | -$5.26 |
| Slots | -$5.00 |
| Video Poker | -$2.50 |
The expected losses per bet shown here demonstrate why games like blackjack and video poker are smarter plays than slots or roulette. The lower your expected loss, the better your odds over the long run.
So break out the calculator before your next trip to the casino. An extra bit of math today could save you hundreds of dollars by the end of your trip!